Will Politics Surprise Bookmakers in 2017?

ian bruce
Written by Ian Bruce
Published on Monday 2nd January 2017, 10:35 am
Posted in: Political Betting

Will Politics Surprise Bookmakers in 2017?

2017 is just a couple of days old, but political bettors are already looking forward to what could prove to be another very eventful year ahead. 2016 was a tough year for bookmakers as far as the political betting arena was concerned, with the outcome of both the EU Referendum and the US Presidential Election defying the odds in a big way and costing them dearly, so the big question now is whether the oddsmakers will fare any better over the next twelve months.

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th President of the USA on Friday 20th January, and Paddy Power is already offering a market on which country he will choose as the destination for his first state visit. England is the current favourite at 7/4, but Canada, Russia and Mexico are joint second favourites at 5/2 and Israel is a close third favourite at 10/3. Ambitious bettors who aren’t afraid to back an unlikely long shot can select North Korea at odds of 200/1.

Bettors who like to get their bets in especially early can have a go at predicting the winner of the next US Presidential election, which will take place in 2020. Donald Trump is the 7/4 favourite with Ladbrokes to achieve back-to-back wins, Mike Pence is 8/1 second favourite and Bernie Sanders is offered at 12/1. Hillary Clinton is 33/1 to make it second time lucky, and her daughter Chelsea Clinton is currently a 200/1 shot to win the 2020 race to the White House.

Theresa May has said on numerous occasions that she would like to formally begin Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union by triggering Article 50 before the beginning of April, but three High Court judges determined that she couldn’t do that without Parliament voting on it first. The Government is currently appealing against that decision, but many commentators doubt that it will win its appeal, and if they are right it could delay the triggering of Article 50 by quite some time.

Bookmakers aren’t currently offering markets about when Article 50 will be triggered, but they are taking bets on who will win the most seats at the next UK General Election. Over at Bet365, the Conservatives are being offered as the 2/9 favourites, whilst Labour are next best at 4/1. Bettors can get 25/1 about the Liberal Democrats winning the most seats, and UKIP are being offered at 40/1. The rank outsiders are the Greens at 500/1.

For political betting fans who want to have a go at predicting an election result that will be known within the few months, the first round of the vote in the 2017 French Presidential Election will take place on Sunday 23 April, and the run-off election that determines the winner will be held on Sunday 7 May. Current President François Hollande announced late last year that he wouldn’t be running for a second term, so the favourite at SkyBet right now is 8/11 shot François Fillon, who previously served the nation as its Prime Minister from 2007 to 2012. Marine Le Pen is installed as the 5/2 second favourite, Emmanuel Macron is the 6/1 third favourite, and other contenders can be backed at 22/1 or longer.

We doubt that 2017 will be quite as bad for bookmakers as last year was in terms on political betting losses, but there should still be plenty of room for a few more surprises yet. Good luck to those of you who choose to get involved and we look forward to seeing how the odds compare with the newspaper headlines as the year unfolds.

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