What The Bookies Say On Brexit: When Will UK Officially Leave UK?

lewis rutledge
Written by Lewis Rutledge
Published on Thursday 30th March 2017, 12:14 pm
Posted in: Specials


What The Bookies Say On Brexit: When Will UK Officially Leave UK?

Bookmakers have reacted quickly to offer fresh odds on the future political landscape of the UK, after Article 50 was officially triggered. Theresa May signed the letter earlier this week that will formally begin the country’s departure from the European Union, describing it is ‘an historic moment from which there is no turning back’.


The people of the UK voted to leave the EU in a referendum last June, and now that Article 50 has been activated there is a two-year timeframe for ‘Brexit’ to be completed. There can only be an extension if all EU countries agree and, as the discussions have yet to begin, bookies do not believe it is a certainty that Brexit will become official in 2019.

What Are Bookies Saying?

William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe commented: “Although 2019 may look a shoo-in, this process has never happened before so there is every possibility it may be over surprisingly quickly, or negotiations may become unexpectedly lengthily.”

William Hill has odds of 2/7 that Brexit will become official in 2019, while there is a price of 9/2 that it will happen earlier and 5/1 that it will be resolved in 2020 or later.

What About Other Political Markets?

William Hill oddsmakers think Theresa May will come through the process of Brexit with her reputation intact, quoting odds of 8/15 that she will still be Prime Minister on the final day of 2020, and 11/7 that she won’t be. The next General Election is scheduled to be held in May 2020.

The vote for Brexit has also led Nicola Sturgeon to push for another referendum on Scottish independence, following a similar vote in 2014 which ended 55.3%-44.7% in favour of staying part of the UK. William Hill has odds of 2/9 that there will be another referendum in Scotland before the end of 2024, and a price of 8/15 that one will be held before the end of 2020.

William Hill also predicts that, when it does happen, Scots will vote for independence, offering 4/6. Sharpe said: “The first Scottish Referendum set a new political betting record when over £10million was gambled on the outcome industry-wide, and the next one already looks set to produce a bigger turnover than that.”

How To Bet on Politics?

The popularity of betting on politics has soared in recent years, with big events such as Brexit and Donald Trump’s US election victory attracting huge amounts of interest from punters. Check out the page on How to Bet on Politics to find out more about the types of wagers available, the best places to bet and some tips on strategy.

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