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Lightweights in Handicap Races
Lightweights win their share of handicap races and because
they do not have the class of other contenders, frequently
start at big prices. The ones to look out for are those
whose overall form shows evidence of the ability to win,
regardless of the class of race in which they normally compete,
even if they have not performed well very recently. Two
or three ‘1’s in the six-digit form shown in most
newspapers are often tell-tale signs of a possible big win
off a low weight.
Outsiders.
Look out for horses whose previous outing was in a handicap
of similar importance or value, even if they ran down the
field. Connections of such animals obviously fancy their
chances for a big win. Things may have gone wrong in running
last time, or the horse may not have 'fired' as was hoped,
but it could well pop up at a long price when the betting
public least expects it.
Standard Winning Percentages.
Over the years horses going off as favourites have won approximately
33% of the time, while second choices, horses with the next
lowest odds after the favourite, will win about 20% of the
time, and third choices, the next down in send-off position,
will win the race about 15% of the time. Altogether, the
top three choices account for just below 70% of all wins.
Favourites will place a bit over 50% of the time, while
second choices place around 40% and third choices around
30%. Keep in mind that these percentages haven't changed
much over the years, but it doesn't mean they will hold
true over short periods on a particular track.
Betting tips and strategies
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