Online Blackjack Insurance
Online blackjack insurance is a common side bet that is offered to players when the dealer’s first up-card is an Ace. The cost of the bet is half the size of the main wager, and if the dealer has blackjack then the insurance bet pays odds of 2/1. This essentially gives the player all of his money back for that particular hand, and it is for this reason that many new players automatically assume that the blackjack insurance bet is well worth taking advantage of. Unfortunately, from the perspective of making long term profits, that is rarely the case…
The common assumption among new blackjack players is that if the dealer is showing an Ace then he is half of the way towards making a Blackjack. That is true in one respect, but a common follow-on assumption – that the dealer has a 50/50 chance of making a blackjack because he either will or he won’t – is far from accurate.
With an Ace showing, there are only four cards which can give the dealer a blackjack, and those are a King, Queen, Jack or 10. However, there are nine cards which won’t help the dealer to make a blackjack, so the ratio of success to failure (for the dealer) is 4:9. Since the odds offered for the insurance bet are 2 to 1, those odds give the player no value whatsoever, so over the long term the player who takes up the insurance option will lose more money than if they declined insurance.
To illustrate this, imagine that over a sample of 13 hands where the dealer has an Ace up-card, the player takes advantage of the blackjack insurance bet and wins 4 times (because the dealer has a blackjack) and loses 9 times (because the dealer does not make a blackjack). In this scenario – which reflects the 4:9 ratio mentioned a few moments ago – the player would have bet a total of 13 units on insurance and would have received 12 units back from the winning insurance bets, giving the player a 1 unit loss overall. It can therefore be seen quite clearly that the insurance bet hinders the player to a significant extent. In essence, the insurance bet only serves to increase the house edge, making it more difficult for the player to enjoy a profitable session.
Understanding all of the above information should give new players a fairly good idea about how to use the online blackjack insurance option: don’t. Instead, get into the habit of refusing the insurance bet and taking any blackjack losses on the chin. This will give the house a lower edge and actually improve your chances of making money over the long term. Always adhere to Basic Blackjack Strategy, avoid insurance, enjoy your time at the tables and good luck!
Jon Parker
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