Card Counting

Card Counting in blackjack is based on mathematics and probability theory, but you don’t need to be a maths whiz or have the memory of an elephant to count cards. In this article we present a simple card counting technique that anyone can use to increase their chances of winning, but first let’s briefly explain how the method works.

Card counting establishes mathematically the degree to which the as-yet-undealt deck favours the dealer or the player. It does this by tracking the changing imbalance of high and low cards in the diminishing deck. Theoretically, card counters have an advantage over the casino of between 0.5% and 1.5%, over the casino.

Actual counting is quite simple. A deck that has lost a good number of low cards and is now rich in high cards (10, jack, queen, king, ace) favours the player. A deck that has lost a good number of face cards and is rich in low cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6), favours the dealer. All card counting systems keep track of the ratio of low cards to high cards remaining in the deck. When that ratio favours the counting player, he or she bets more money. When the count favours the dealer, the player bets less.

The simplest card counting method to learn is a one level count, which is also known as the Hi-Lo counting system. It assigns the following count values to each card.

2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (low cards) +1
7, 8, 9 (neutral cards)    0
10, J, Q, K, Ace (high cards) -1

When the new deck begins, there is no imbalance between the high and low cards except for the possible discard(s), so you visualise a zero as the starting figure. As each card is dealt, you add to or subtract from that imbalance figure the card’s value as shown above.

For example, you have played a bit in a single deck game, and now the deck is half gone, with just 26 cards remaining. You’ve been card counting, and the current imbalance figure that you have been quietly tracking is +7. That’s pretty good! If the dealer has to hit his hand, the remaining 26-card deck is short seven of the cards he would like to rely on. But let’s say he catches his hand with two small cards and the count goes to +9 with 24 cards remaining. Many players would bet the farm on the next hand.

And that’s all there is to card counting on the simplest level: You vary your bets, from one hand to the next, guided by the constantly updated imbalance figure which predicts whether the next hand will favour you or favour the dealer. Whilst card counting does not guarantee that you will win (don’t quit your day job!) if you combine it with basic strategy you should certainly see an improvement in your game.

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